New Delhi: The annual mean temperature in India is expected to rise 3.5-4.3 degrees Celsius by 2098, badly affected by production of wheat - an important crop - and a growing malaria outbreak, according to India's submission to the United Nations (UN) released here Wednesday.
India's second national communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) projects climate change impacts for key sectors such as water, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystems, costal areas, human health, and others during 1961-2098 using a computer-generated models.
It discusses basic parameters such as rainfall, surface air temperature and mean sea level pressure to obtain climatic projections at the end of this century.
"The simulation for the period indicated all round warming over the Indian subcontinent. The annual mean surface air temperature rise by the end of the century ranges from 3.5-4.3 degrees Celsius," projected.
The magnitude of the impact of climate change on wheat in India has indicated that an increase in one degree Celsius in average temperature, not to cause a significant loss, if a simple adaptation strategies as a change in culture date and varieties are used.
"The benefits of such strategies, however, gradually decrease as the temperature increases to 5 degrees Celsius, and this could lead to 27.5 million tonnes of wheat production annually by the end of the century," it said.
India's wheat production for the year 2011-12 was 88.31 million tonnes. So to lose 27.5 million tonnes annually would be more than one quarter of current production.
Production of crops such as cotton, potatoes, and a short season crops such as vegetables, fruits are also likely to decrease with increasing temperature and altered pattern of rainfall.
About the impact of climate change on human health, the communications said that malaria outbreak probably will increase in northern states and some region of southern India, especially Karnataka.
He says that climate change and climate variability in the water resources are likely to affect irrigated agriculture, installed power capacity, the environment flows in dry seasons and higher flows during the wet season, so causing severe droughts and flooding problems in urban and rural areas.
Forests in India are already subjected to multiple stresses such as over-extraction, anthropogenic pressures and climate change will be an additional stress.
India's second national communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) projects climate change impacts for key sectors such as water, agriculture, forestry, natural ecosystems, costal areas, human health, and others during 1961-2098 using a computer-generated models.
It discusses basic parameters such as rainfall, surface air temperature and mean sea level pressure to obtain climatic projections at the end of this century.
"The simulation for the period indicated all round warming over the Indian subcontinent. The annual mean surface air temperature rise by the end of the century ranges from 3.5-4.3 degrees Celsius," projected.
The magnitude of the impact of climate change on wheat in India has indicated that an increase in one degree Celsius in average temperature, not to cause a significant loss, if a simple adaptation strategies as a change in culture date and varieties are used.
"The benefits of such strategies, however, gradually decrease as the temperature increases to 5 degrees Celsius, and this could lead to 27.5 million tonnes of wheat production annually by the end of the century," it said.
India's wheat production for the year 2011-12 was 88.31 million tonnes. So to lose 27.5 million tonnes annually would be more than one quarter of current production.
Production of crops such as cotton, potatoes, and a short season crops such as vegetables, fruits are also likely to decrease with increasing temperature and altered pattern of rainfall.
About the impact of climate change on human health, the communications said that malaria outbreak probably will increase in northern states and some region of southern India, especially Karnataka.
He says that climate change and climate variability in the water resources are likely to affect irrigated agriculture, installed power capacity, the environment flows in dry seasons and higher flows during the wet season, so causing severe droughts and flooding problems in urban and rural areas.
Forests in India are already subjected to multiple stresses such as over-extraction, anthropogenic pressures and climate change will be an additional stress.
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