Friday, January 27, 2012

First report on UK climate impact

Climate change this century poses both risks and opportunities, according to the first comprehensive assessment of the type of government.

The report warned that the floods, heat waves and water shortages may become more likely.

But the benefits would include fewer new routes through Arctic cold-related deaths in the winter and higher yields.

Results from climate change risk assessment.

This 2000-page document produced by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural (Defra).

This is part of the government's strategy for coping with global warming.

The study was conducted over the past three years and is studying the possible effects of 11 key areas, including agriculture, transportation, and floods.

Evaluations rely on a number of scenarios based on computer modeling future climate.

The authors acknowledge that there is a high level of uncertainty will lead to a variety of possible outcomes.

The relatively small size in the UK means that the modeling of regional and local level remains a serious challenge.

Further restriction is that the studies share the assumption that sectors of the economy makes any attempt to adapt to future conditions.

It is designed to provide "baseline" assessment so that it is easier to show the risks are not taken.

However, it is known that a number of organizations have already responded in different ways.

Headlines and possible negative results, assuming no action is taken in preparation, are as follows:

Hotter summers will average between 580-5900 deaths per year over the 2050s.
Water shortages in the north, south and east of England, particularly in the Thames Valley area 2080s.
Most flood damage could cost between £ 2.1bn-£ 12bn by the 2080s.

Report positive results are as follows:

Opening of the Arctic sea ice melting shorter sea route to Asia.
Milder winters, leading to fewer premature deaths from 3.900 to 24.000 2050s, significantly more than those dying as a result of hot weather forecast.
Wheat yields increased 40-140% and 20-70% of the sugar beet harvest, by the 2050s because of longer growing season.

This widely varied results may lead to criticism that the results are too vague to be useful to policy makers, businesses and local governments.

All scenarios depend on computer models of future climate and is therefore inherently subject to uncertainties.

The report itself acknowledges that the sea level rise this century London, something between 30cm and 190cm.

"We do not know," the document says that "as soon as emissions of greenhouse gases will increase as a chilling effect on other air pollutants are or how fast the ice caps may melt."

One of them is related to the protection of reliance on models of the report, told me: "They are the best we have, they are all we have."

One objective of the work is to raise awareness of the extent of possible changes in key organizations, and encourage future plans.

Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman said in a report: "It shows what life could be like when we finished our preparations now, and the consequences of such a decision would mean to our economic stability."

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